A research report entitled "Connotation and Prospect of New Power System with New Energy as the main body" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was released at the conference. The report clarifies the strategic significance of constructing a new type of power system in China, and puts forward the definition, main characteristics and prospects of the new type of power system. On this basis, the report analyzes the difficulties and challenges of constructing a new type of power system in China, and puts forward the key pillars and guarantee measures of constructing a new type of power system. The report pointed out that the new power system will be the main body of China's energy system in the future, which will fundamentally change the current development pattern of China's fossil-dominated energy, and realize the electrification of energy consumption and the cleanliness of electricity consumption. By 2060, the proportion of electric energy in terminal use in China will be more than 70%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy generation will be more than 95% of the total power generation. Building a new type of power system with new energy as the main body will be an important solution for China to achieve high-quality economic and social development and deal with climate change, is the foundation for building an energy power, and is the guarantee for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
The report believes that the new power system should have the main characteristics of comprehensive support, system balance, comprehensive efficiency, scientific and technological innovation and international leadership. Overall support refers to the high degree of electrification in China, and the full realization of replacing coal, oil and gas with electricity. Clean technologies, including hydrogen energy, carbon capture and storage (CCUS) and biomass energy, can effectively support deep decarbonization in areas that are difficult to electrify in the whole society; System balance refers to that China can break through the "impossible triangle" of the energy system, realize that electricity consumption is dominated by clean energy, have the ability of safe and stable power supply and flexible adjustment ability in the event of emergencies, the price of electricity is stable for a long time and the end users can afford it, and the electricity service benefits the economy and people's livelihood. Comprehensive efficiency refers to China's high efficiency of comprehensive energy use, service-oriented demand side, and high level of recycling and comprehensive utilization of waste resources. It has an efficient market mechanism (efficient market) and a scientific and sound regulatory system (effective government), and the development of extensive integration with the new generation of digital information technology; Scientific and technological innovation means that each link of the whole electric power industry chain in China can adopt advanced science and technology, maintain the world's leading level of scientific and technological research, development and demonstration, and promote the energy technology revolution; International leadership means that China has a strong influence on power investment, trade and standard setting, international energy organizations, climate change and other issues, and can actively contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to the world's energy problems.
According to the report, the construction of new power system in China can be divided into two phases, the first phase to 2035, and the second phase to 2060, called the 1.0 and 2.0 phases of the construction of new power system respectively. In the 1.0 stage, the position of electric power in China's energy system was continuously strengthened, and the incremental energy consumption was mainly electric power consumption. In the 2.0 stage, new energy began to replace fossil energy on a large scale, and the boundary between power system and energy system gradually blurred. Under the development path of new power systems, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic, solar-thermal, onshore and offshore wind power will exceed 1.1 billion kW by 2025, 2.6 billion KW by 2035 and 5.6 billion kW by 2060, with non-fossil energy generating capacity accounting for 43 percent, 61 percent and 95 percent, respectively. This corresponds to the accelerated decline of coal power installed capacity, which reaches a peak of 1.17 billion kW in 2025 and then enters a peak plateau, slowly declining to 1.06 billion kW in 2035. By 2060, China will eliminate all coal-power base load and peak-load generating units, and only reserve about 200 million kw safety backup units in high-load areas such as east and central China.
Under the development path of building a new power system, carbon dioxide emissions from China's power industry will peak around 2025, with a peak of about 4.5 billion tons. Carbon emissions will be at a peak plateau from 2025 to 2028, and will still be about 4.2 billion tons in 2030. If the utilization of CCUS (including BECCS and direct air capture) technology in the power industry is considered, the carbon emission of China's power industry will be about 3.5 billion tons by 2035, about 700 million tons by 2050, and negative emission will be achieved by 2060.
According to the report, a new round of technological revolution has become the most serious challenge for China to build new power systems, including new energy storage, solar thermal, CCUS, nuclear, geothermal, biomass, Marine energy, and green hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and terminal utilization systems. In addition, China will face different challenges and difficulties in different periods in the process of constructing new power system. In the 1.0 stage, China will mainly face the problems of economy brought by the continuously increasing penetration rate of new energy and efficiency brought by the lagging reform of electric power system. In the 2.0 stage, China will mainly face security problems, including the impact of large-scale grid connection of fluctuating power supply on the safe and stable operation of the system, and the safe and stable supply of mineral resources and rare earth resources in the new energy manufacturing industry.
In two stages, and to construct the new power system, the focus will be around to promote the optimization of coal and the exit, improve comprehensive ShiCe power system flexibility, strengthen distributed energy and the development of micro grid pattern, vigorously develops the system of electricity derivatives technology and a new generation of power and heating technology, and the promotion of circular economy and the development of "new energy +". However, the emphases of the two stages are different. In the 1.0 stage, more emphasis is placed on adjusting the development direction of coal power and solving the problem of insufficient flexibility of the power system, so as to meet the demand of large-scale new energy grid connection and accelerate the decarbonization process of the power industry. In the 2.0 stage, more emphasis is placed on the development and promotion of new technologies, production and consumption modes, and business models, as well as the integrated development of the electric power industry and other industries, so as to give play to the fundamental position of the electric power industry and drive the clean and low-carbon development of industry, transportation, construction and other sectors.
To ensure the construction of a new power system, China needs to establish a modern energy management system and continuously improve the management level of government departments, the report stressed. It is necessary to build efficient wholesale power market and diversified retail power market to ensure the safety, reliability and economy of the power system with the increasing penetration rate of new energy. We need to attach great importance to scientific research, development and innovation, and make breakthroughs in key energy technologies. It is necessary to improve the carbon market and the responsibility system of renewable energy consumption, force the transformation and withdrawal of coal power generation by market-oriented means, and improve the economy of new energy projects. It is necessary to vigorously promote just transformation and strengthen publicity and education, promote inclusive development of economy and society, mobilize all positive factors, and explore the best practice and optimal way of constructing new power system.
Yang Fuqiang, a special researcher at the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, said that building a new power system with new energy as the main body is of great strategic significance for the country. This will not only reshape China's energy production and consumption structure, further promote the energy revolution and fully respond to the challenge of climate change, but also drive China to accelerate technological innovation, lead the world's fourth industrial revolution, and help Build China into a great modern socialist country. "Difference" is open to build the new power system in our country during the period of the first five years, our country should as soon as possible carbon up to the peak of the power sector, accelerate the transformation of coal role positioning, realization of incremental electricity demand by non-fossil energy content, and for the stock of new energy on a large scale to replace the fossil energy, complete build new type of electric power system to lay a good foundation. The construction of a new power system will be a necessary condition for China to achieve 80% non-fossil energy consumption by 2060.
